I’ll keep this short. People speak in absolutes. Absolute statements carry this hidden assumption that the speaker has all the data. They don’t, so they’re wrong. In the interest of remaining consistent, we should say it’s likely they’re wrong.

Words like likely and probably qualify absolute statements, increasing the likelihood of the statement’s accuracy. If you wish to speak or convey thoughts and opinions intelligently, consider qualifying the statement. Taking a step further, quantify your qualification, though avoid arbitrary quantification (people sense bs, part of the reason the used car salesman is an archetype). These are simple strategies to avoid being an imbecile, though with any strategy, there are weaknesses. There exists a threshold of qualification that once surpassed sees the speaker sail the seas of categorically true and beach on the Plains of Pedantistan.